[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2794 (S16E46, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. Low level B-class enhancements were observed on the SE limb near S18, near an area of enhanced plage and possible additional spots. This area is still too close to the east limb to obtain an accurate magnetic analysis, but will be monitored closely over the next few days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, on 23-25 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 23-25 Dec due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of the second positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed remained near 550 km/s through 23/0500 UTC when it then increased to near 615 km/s, peaking near 644 km/s at 23/0713 UTC. Total field ranged from 2-7 nT, while the Bz component was between +4 nT and -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue under the influence of a series of positive polarity, polar connected, CH HSSs through 25 Dec. The second enhancement is expected to continue through 23 Dec, with solar wind speed likely to remain near 600 km/s through the period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active, due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23-24 Dec as a positive polarity CH HSS remains in a geoeffective position. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 25 Dec as HSS effects persist.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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