[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2794 (S18E61, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, on 22-24 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 22-24 Dec due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field averaged near 4 nT for most of the period, but reached a maximum near 19 nT at 21/2322 UTC at the peak of the CIR transition. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -13 nT at 21/2056 UTC, before returning to near nominal levels for the remainder of the period. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 375 km/s to near 550 km/s, with a peak of 575 km/s 22/0502 UTC. Phi angle was mostly negative the first half of the period before rotating into a mostly positive orientation after 21/2230 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced through the period due to the arrival of a series of positive polarity, polar connected, CH HSSs. The second enhancement is expected around mid to late day on 23 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period, likely due to CIR effects.

Forecast: Primarily unsettled to active levels are expected on 22 Dec due to continuing CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 23 Dec, with likely periods of G1 storm conditions late, due to escalating CH HSS influences. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are anticipated on 24 Dec as CH HSS influences continue, but weaken.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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