[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A new active region rotated onto the SE limb and was numbered Region 2794 (S17E71, Hsx/alpha). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on 21-23 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 21 Dec. High levels are expected on 22-23 Dec due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed ranged from 360-400 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength reached 9 nT late in the period while the Bz component was sustained southward at around -5/-7 nT between 21/0100-0500 UTC. The phi angle transitioned from a positive sector to negative after 21/0500 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels through midday on 21 Dec. By mid-to-late 21 Dec, solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced due to the influence of a positive polarity, polar connected, CH HSS. An additional enhancement is expected around midday on 23 Dec as another positive polarity, polar connected, CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through midday on 21 Dec. Unsettled to active conditions are expected mid-to-late 21 Dec, followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 Dec, due to CH HSS effects. Another positive polarity CH HSS is expected around midday on 23 Dec and is expected to cause unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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