[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2020 Dec 21 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Dec 21 0123 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 December 2020

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Low levels were observed on 14 Dec when Region 2792 (S22, L=103, class/area Bxo/010 on 15 Dec) produced a C4/Sf at 14/1437 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 606 km/s. 15-20 Dec saw solar activity at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period. The solar wind environment was at nominal levels with wind speeds between 348-416 km/s, total field ranged between 2-5 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation throughout the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 December - 16 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period with a slight chance for low levels from 21-31 Dec and 01 Jan and again on 14-16 Jan due to the flare potential from Region 2794 ( S18, L=347, class/area Hsx/120 on 20 Dec).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21 Dec, 30-31 Dec and 01-16 Jan. High levels are anticipated on 23-29 Dec due to CH HSS effects.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 21-26 Dec and 05-06 Jan due to CH HSS influence. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 23 Dec. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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