[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2790 (S22W50, Hsx/alpha) changed little and remained in a simple magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 10-12 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 10-12 Dec, due primarily to the activity tendency of Region 2790.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 10-12 Dec; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period indicative of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field averaged 5-9 nT during this time, and Bz was +/- 6 nT. At approximately 10/0132 UTC a shock, likely produced by the 07 Dec CME, was observed in the IMF by the DSCOVR satellite. Total field values reached 16 nT, and wind speeds reached ~570 km/s. However, this elevation in parameters has been short lived thus far. Total field has weakened to 5-7 nT, Bz has been neutral or northward, and wind speeds averaged ~500 km/s by periods end. Phi has been predominantly in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: The Solar wind environment is anticipated to continue at its current levels through 11 Dec. It is possible there is a chance to see a further enhancement 10 Dec due to a lagging portion of the CMEs magnetic cloud, but confidence is low in that scenario. A return to an ambient-like, background state is anticipated by 12 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period during the aforementioned shock arrival.

Forecast: There is still a chance for G3 (Strong) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming, 10 Dec and 11 Dec respectively, if a slower moving portion of the 07 Dec CME is still inbound and connects effectively with Earths magnetic field and Bz deflects strongly southward. However, confidence is low in this scenario at this time. Otherwise, unsettled with isolated active conditions are likely to continue 10-11 Dec. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 12 Dec.

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