[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2790 (S23W34, Hsx/alpha) changed little and remained in a simple magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 09-11 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 09-11 Dec, due primarily to the activity tendency of Region 2790.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 09-11 Dec; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were mostly at background levels this period. Total field values began averaging between 5-8 nT and the Bz component underwent a sustained deflection of -5 nT before oscillating between +/- 5 nT in the latter half of the period. However, wind speeds have remained at ambient-like levels averaging between 350-390 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector while undergoing brief excursions into a positive orientation.

Forecast: The IMF will likely reflect initial arrival of the 07 Dec CME late on 09 Dec with an increase in speed expected and increase in Bt possible. The brunt of reflection of the CME is expected more so on 10 Dec with solar wind speed near 800+ km/s and additional total field enhancements. A further solar wind Bt increase is possible 10-11 Dec due to influences form a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled 09 Dec until the CME arrives late in the UT day. Initial response from the CME is expected to be unimpressive with peak storm potential at or below G1 (Minor). 10 Dec is anticipated to see the greatest disturbance from the CME if the Bz is sustained at negative for long enough and if total field strength is significant. If so, as high as G3 (Strong) could occur. Peak of G2 (Moderate) is possible on 11 Dec, especially in the early overnight for N. America, before the CME passes and impacts wane.

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