[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2790 (S23W61, Hsx/alpha) remained relatively stable and only produced B-class activity. Only far-side CME activity was apparent in currently available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 11-13 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares due primarily to the potential from Region 2790.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 11-13 Dec while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested influence form a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were elevated and primarily were between 450-500 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 3-8 nT. The Bz component only dropped to -4 nT through the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is likely to continue at slightly elevated levels on 11 Dec. There is potential for additional enhancements from a transition to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS on 12-13 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to continue at quiet to unsettled levels over 11-13 Dec as relatively weak influence from multiple CH HSSs is anticipated.

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