[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2786 (S18W48, Hkx/alpha) and 2790 (S26E30, Cao/beta) produced C1.7 and C1.2 flares respectively. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is anticipated to be at low levels with a chance for C-class flares 03-05 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels (1530 pfu at 02/1735 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced from the southeast limb event on 29 Nov but remained below the 10 pfu threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels 03-05 Dec. There is a slight chance the 10 MeV proton flux will exceed 10 pfu since flux has remained above normal, background levels for three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment gradually returned to ambient, background-like conditions this period. Wind speeds fell from a peak of 449 km/s to ~365 km/s. Total field values peaked briefly at 7 nT before averaging 3-4 nT by periods end while the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Ambient, background-like conditions are anticipated to continue through 05 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods, are expected through 05 Dec.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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