[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2790 (S22E55, Cao/beta) was mostly stable, only producing B-level enhancements. Region 2786 (S18W33, Cko/beta) produced a C1.4 flare at 01/2320 UTC, the largest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced from the southeast limb event on 29 Nov but remained below the 10 pfu threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02-04 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) given current, elevated readings.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were somewhat elevated. Solar wind speeds observed at the ACE satellite ranged from ~400-500 km/s. Total magnetic field strength and its Bz component were typical of an undisturbed, background solar wind. Phi was mostly negative.

Forecast: Near-background levels are anticipated for 02-04 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated for the next three days (02-04 Dec) with slightly elevated solar wind speeds.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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