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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2436 (N09E37, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 19/1727 UTC. The region exhibited minor growth near the leader spot and umbral growth in the trailer spot. Region 2434 (S10W15, Dac/beta) and Region 2437 (S19E53, Cao/beta) also produced low level C-class activity but remained relatively stable with little change over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over the next three days (20-22 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels during the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on days one and two (20-21 Oct). Day three (22 Oct), should see a drop in relativistic electron flux levels after a redistribution of electrons due to the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a nominal wind regime. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) remained below 5 nT and the Bz component of the solar wind was variable between +4 and -5 nT. The wind speeds were mostly steady ranging from around 360 km/s to 400 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive (away) during the first half of the period and then variable into the negative sector (towards) after 19/2300 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels on day one and early on day two (20-21 Oct). A solar wind enhancement is expected late on day two and into day three (22 Oct) due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (20 Oct) with quiet to active levels expected on day two (21 Oct) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS late in the day. Day three (22 Oct), should see quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS influence begins to wane.

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