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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2434 (S08E53, Cai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 15/1048 UTC. The region continued to develop new spots around the leader and intermediate areas. Region 2332 (S21W04, Dro/beta) exhibited minor decay and consolidation in both its leader and trailer spots.

Three filaments were observed erupting from the SW portion of the solar disk. The filament eruption beginning around 14/0613 UTC has been modeled and is not expected to impact Earth. Two subsequent eruptions were observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery around the same area beginning around 14/1414 UTC and 14/1928 UTC. Both eruptions produced signatures that suggest an unlikely Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for M-class activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (15-17 Oct). Region 2434 is the most likely contributor of event level flares currently on the disk. Further increasing flare potential is old Region 2422 (S18, L=102), expected to return beginning on day two (16 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 7,388 pfu observed at 14/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from moderate to high levels through the forecast period (15-17 Oct) due to elevated solar winds from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested continued enhancement from the large, positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speed ranged between approximately 450 km/s to 550 km/s with a gradual trend downward through the past 24 hours. Total field strength was about 4 nT to 7 nT. Bz component was between +4 nT and -6 nT with a sustained far southward period beginning after 15/0400 UTC and maintaining through the end of the period. Phi angle was mostly positive (away) until after 15/0400 UTC where variations into the negative (towards) sector were observed.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected remain enhanced on days one and two (15-16 Oct) as effects from a geoeffective, positive polarity CH HSS persist. A slow decrease to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on day three (17 Oct) as coronal hole effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels under the persistent CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor (G1) storm levels on days one and two (15-16 Oct) due to persistent CH HSS effects. Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (17 Oct) as coronal hole effects wane.

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