[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Propagation Summary

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels, with flare activity confined to the western hemisphere. Region 2302 (N12W77, Cai/beta-gamma) was the most productive, with eight low-level C flares as of 19/1000 UTC. The largest of these was a C3/Sf at 18/1314 UTC. Region 2297 (S17W81, Cko/beta-gamma), although producing fewer flares, produced the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf event at 18/1631 UTC. New flux was emerging near N18W21 and was being monitored.

Forecast: With the departure of Region 2297 and 2302 around the west limb over the next 24 hours, flare probability decreases significantly. C class events will remain likely for the next three days, but there will only be a slight chance for an M-class (R1-minor radio blackout) event.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 3130 pfu at 18/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at or near ambient background values over the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels over the next three days (19-21 Mar). The greater than 10 Mev proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain below (S1-minor radiation storm) alert thresholds.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the waning influence of the coronal mass ejection and the waxing influence of the southern polar coronal hole extension high speed wind stream. Bt fell from around 12 nT early in the period to about 4-6 nT by the end. Solar wind speed began around 600 km/s, reached a peak near 750 km/s at 18/2130 UTC, and declined afterward. It ended the period back near 600 km/s. Bz was southward (-11 nT) at the beginning of the period, approached neutral territory by 19/0000 UTC, and then turned southward again, reaching -7 nT. Phi was negative. Forecast: Waning high speed stream characteristics are expected over the next three days.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from major storm (G2, moderate) levels to active levels in the wake of the CME and under the influence of the high speed solar wind stream.

Forecast: Day one (19 Mar) is expected to begin with an isolated period of minor (G1) storm conditions, due to CH HSS effects in the North American night-time sector and residual CME effects. Conditions are then expected to decrease to mostly active levels through day one and into day two (20 Mar). Day three (21 Mar) should see quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects wane.

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