[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Propagation Summary

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 14 1230 UTC. Solar Activity 24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels this period. Region 2297 (S17W19, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a single M1/2n flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) at 14/0440 UTC. Region 2297 indicated overall elongation of the group and continued to show signs of separation, particularly in its intermediate spots. Delta magnetic configurations were still evident in its large trailer and intermediate spots and the region persists as the most productive and threatening sunspot group on the visible disk. The five remaining regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay. No new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater radio blackouts) over the next three days (14-16 Mar) with Region 2297 being the likely source of subsequent flare activity. Energetic Particle 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels this period, reaching a peak flux value of 145 pfu at 13/1300 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (14-16 Mar). There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement to S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over the next three days (14-16 Mar) due to the potential for Region 2297 to produce significant flare activity. Solar Wind 24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds showed a slow, steady decline from about 450 km/s to end the period near 350 km/s. IMF total field values were steady between 4-8 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward component of -7 nT early in the period. The phi angle remained predominately in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector configuration with intermittent transitions to a negative (toward the Sun) orientation between 13/1630-2100 UTC. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced late on day one (14 Mar) due to intensifying CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of three CMEs associated with M-class flare activity earlier this week. A CME associated with a filament eruption on 11 Mar is expected to arrive on day two (15 Mar) which is expected to keep solar wind parameters slightly elevated. Solar wind parameters are likely to begin a gradual decrease on day three (16 Mar) as combined CH HSS influence and CME effects begin to subside. Geospace 24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was generally quiet this period with an isolated period of unsettled conditions between 13/1200-1500 UTC which was attributed to a brief period of southward Bz. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely late on day one (14 Mar) due to a combination of CME and CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for day two (15 Mar) as CH HSS influence persists in conjunction with the anticipated arrival of the 11 Mar CME. A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field conditions is likely on day three (16 Mar) as CH HSS and CME effects subside. Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/ Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/ If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information! We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

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