[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Propagation Summary

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at moderate levels this period. Region 2297 (S17W46, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of M1 (R1-Minor) flares at 15/2322 UTC at 16/1058 UTC along with a few weak C-class events. Region 2297 exhibited some consolidation within its intermediate spots but was otherwise unchanged. The remaining two spotted regions were in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.

Forecast: M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity is likely with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three days (16-18 Mar) with Region 2297 being the likely source of subsequent activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained enhanced following the activity of early 15 Mar. Proton flux levels hovered around 1 pfu until about 16/0330 UTC when a gradual rise in flux levels occurred. At the time of this report, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 8.5 pfu at 16/0755 UTC. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (16-18 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels for the next three days (16-18 Mar). A further enhancement is expected on 18 Mar after shock passage of the 15 Mar CME.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected increased variability in total field and Bz values. Bt ranged from 2-15 nT while the Bz component varied between +13 to -12 nT. Wind speeds varied between 290-350 km/s through about 16/0500 UTC when an increase to near 400 km/s was observed. The phi angle transitioned from a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector configuration to a positive (away from the Sun) orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at mostly nominal levels for the remainder of day one (16 Mar). A solar wind enhancement is expected late on day two (17 Mar) through day three (18 Mar) due to the onset of a negative polarity southern polar coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) in conjunction with the arrival of the 15 Mar CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period possible for the remainder of day one (16 Mar). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for most of day two (17 Mar) with active conditions expected late due to a combination of the onset of a negative polarity southern polar CH HSS and the anticipated arrival of the 15 Mar CME. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on day three (18 Mar) as CH HSS and CME effects persist.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation