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I'm in the later and smaller camp. Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards a
smaller and later peak for solar cycle 24.
In 2007 I predicted a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot number
of 105 in October 2012 and stand by that forecast. If correct solar cycle 24
will be smaller than the previous three and make for grim DXing on the
higher HF bands and a cooling of the global climate.
Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards another Dalton Minimum. A Dalton
Minimum is a miniature version of the infamous Maunder Minimum, where the
number of sunspot groups drop to a below normal level and corresponding
total energy output of the Sun also drops. This would bring on a mini mini
ice age for a period of 30-50 years.
NOTE!!! A slow rise time in a solar cycle is indicative a relatively small
maximum within the cycle, with a fast rise time indicative of a relatively
large maximum within a solar cycle. As of March 24, 2008 we have seen only
8 sunspot groups since January 1st. Of those eight seven are solar cycle 23
sunspot groups.
On January 4, 2008 it was declared by the NOAA SWPC that solar cycle 24 had
begun based on the first reversed polarity sunspot cycle group but that was
just to end the suspense. We are not at that point yet. Therefore in my
professional opinion we are still at the bottom of solar cycle 23. However
from an improved propagation point of view there is no difference between
the bottom of solar cycle 23 and the beginning of solar cycle 24.
Unfortunately there is no official definition as to when a new sunspot cycle
begins. It is generally accepted that when the number of solar cycle 24
sunspot group numbers surpass the number of solar cycle 23 sunspot group
numbers solar cycle 24 will be underway. This will probably not occur for a
few more months or so.
It's easier to look back and declare that a solar cycle is already underway
then to predict when it will begin. As of this moment we still can't point
to the month that the lowest smoothed sunspot number occurred, to be able to
point to the arrival of the bottom of solar cycle 23, however October 2007
looks like a good candidate.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Lakeland, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast & Archive
Site: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
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Solar Cycle 23
Posted by: "Mike Terry" miketerry73@btinternet.com miketerry73
Mon Mar 24, 2008 1:16 am (PDT)
Irish Radio Transmitters Society
Radio News Bulletin
March 23 2008
As you already know the first sunspot of the new solar
cycle 24 took place in early January. It seems that all
of the experts now agree that February 2008 marked the
solar minimum. These experts are however divided on
their present predictions for the intensity of he
upcoming solar maximum. The low team are predicting
smoothed sunspot numbers of somewhere between 75 and
105 at the peak of the cycle in August 2012 with an
average of 90. This would approximate to solar flux
levels of between 118 and 164 with an average of 141.
The high team on the other hand predicts smoothed
sunspot numbers of between 125 and 155 at the peak of
the cycle in October 2011 with an average of 140. This
would approximate to solar flux levels of between 164
and 210 with an average of 187.
The average of the high and low predictions show the
peak in January 2012 with a smoothed sunspot number of
113 or a solar flux of 162. No matter which prediction
is taken the good news is that solar flux levels should
be pushing up to 100 by mid 2009.
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