:Issued: 2004 Oct 21 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41021
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Oct 2004, 1225UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Oct 2004 until 23 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Sunspot group 49 (NOAA 0678) at the east-limb, has a beta-gamma
configuration and is the strongest candidate for producing C and even an
M-flare.
The influence of the coronal hole which is now behind the west-limb is
diminishing. We expect quiet conditions. A new northern coronal hole passed the
central meridian on October 20. Any influence is expected for September 23 with
possible periods of active conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 134
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 111
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 013
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
20 1043 1051 1056 N11E68 M2.6 71 III/2 49 0687
accompanying CME,SXI derived location
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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