:Issued: 2004 Oct 30 1301 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41030
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Oct 2004, 1106UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Oct 2004 until 01 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity has taken an unexpected turn, late yesterday, when new
polarities appeared next to the leading spot of active region 52 (NOAA0691).
This change triggered a fast succession of M flares, and an X1.3 has just gone
off at the time of this bulletin. A small enhancement of the proton flux is also
observed in GOES data. More M flares and a possible X flare from that region are
still expected for at least the next 24hours. Mainly C flares are expected from
the other active regions, in particular #57 (NOAA0693).
The geomagnetic activity is now unsettled to active, under the influence of a
low-latitude coronal hole on the Sun. The solar wind speed increased to more
than 400km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic gained strength (10nT) and
started to fluctuate southward. The same conditions will extend at least until
tomorrow. Quiet conditions are expected thereafter, on Nov. 1 or 2, barring the
arrival of possible CMEs associated with the burst of M and X flares that is
just happening now.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 192
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 129
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 008
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
30 0323 0333 0340 N13W19 M3.6 52 0691
30 0606 0618 0626 N12W21 M4.5 52 0691
30 0909 0928 0935 N13W23 M3.9 52 0691
30 1138 1146 1150 N13W23 X1.3 52 0691
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