:Issued: 2004 Oct 14 1236 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41014
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Oct 2004, 1226UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Oct 2004 until 16 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 091 / AP: 012
COMMENT: The coronal hole which is at the very west-limb at the present is the
source of the solar wind blowing over the earth. In EIT 284, the coronal hole is
not visible anymore since magnetic structures before it block our view. The
largest influence was at the moment the density of the solar wind measured by
ACE increased slightly on October 12 from 18:00UT onwards. The density is now
decreasing, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is smaller
compared with end October 12. How these quantities evolve, is typical for a
coronal hole. Active conditions are still possible in the next 24 hours,
depending on the orientation of the IMF. Active region 682, recently rotated
over the east-limb, produced 2 C-flares. This region made the flaring
probability grow.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 087
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 049
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 035
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
NONE
END
BT
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
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73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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