Issued: 2004 Aug 16 1232 UTC
Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40816
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Aug 2004, 1219UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Aug 2004 until 18 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Several CMEs were produced by NOAA AR 0656, Catania number 90, but -
as it is situated close to the limb - none of them seems to be able to increase
the geomagnetic activity significantly. The arrival of a CME launched on August
13 is still possible later today, but it will probably produce only a weak
geomagnetic disturbance. A small coronal hole is now situated near the central
meridian. It may be able to increase slightly the geomagnetic activity in 2 - 3
days.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 082
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 139
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 006
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
15 1234 1241 1243 S15W45 M9.4 1N 90 0656
15 1837 1845 1850 S13W50 M1.2 III/2 90 0656 GOES-12/SXI derived
location
16 0331 0347 0415 S12W54 M1.1 SF III/3 90 0656
16 0525 0538 0545 S12W57 M1.0 90 0656 SolarSoft derived
location
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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