It appears that the increased solar and space weather I first forecasted back
on August 4, 2004 is now occurring. So far
though geomagnetic conditions continue pretty much quiet but that will change
soon.
73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF Moderator
Plant City, FL, USA
Issued: 2004 Aug 14 1236 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40814
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Aug 2004, 1046 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Aug 2004 until 16 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 026
COMMENT: Active region Catania#90 (NOAA0656) produced several moderate M
flares, as well as an X1 flare on Aug. 13 at 18:12UT and an M8 flare on Aug. 14
05:44UT. Both strong events produced radio blackouts and triggered CMEs that
may hit the Earth magnetosphere on Aug. 16, inducing a minor or moderate storm,
depending on the orientation of the associated magnetic fields. The X-ray
background remains elevated at C3 and several M flares as well as a couple of X
flares are expected in the coming 24 to 48 hours, as this major active region
does not show signs of decay and keeps its delta magnetic configuration. Late
yesterday, Aug. 14, at 20:30UT, the ACE spacecraft detected a weak shock in the
form of a sharp density jump, followed by 5nT oscillations of the Bz component
of the IMF. This disturbance, formed of the ejecta from the Aug. 10 CME, only
induced temporary active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions at high latitude
between Aug. 13, 21:00 and Aug. 14, 02:00UT.
Issued: 2004 Aug 14 0656 UTC
Olympic fireworks? Several M flares and an X1 flare were produced by active
region Catania#90 (NOAA0656) over the last few hours. The X flare occured at
Aug.13, 18:12UT and triggered a semi-halo CME in the SW quadrant. At this time,
the available data do not allow to derive accurate measurements, but we expect
that this fast CME will hit the Earth in a glancing blow on Aug.16. An M8 flare
just occured at Aug. 14, 05:44UT, indicating that new strong flares in the M
and X classes must be expected over the coming hours and days.
Late yesterday, Aug. 14, at 20:30UT, the ACE spacecraft detected a weak shock
in the form of a sharp density jump, followed by 5nT oscillations of the Bz
component of the IMF. This disturbance, formed of the ejecta from the Aug. 10
CME, only induced temporary active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions at
high latitude between Aug. 13, 21:00 and Aug. 14, 02:00UT. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions until Aug. 16,
when the arrival of solar disturbances may trigger a minor or moderate storm.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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