Issued: 2004 Aug 15 1231 UTC
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40815
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Aug 2004, 1215UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Aug 2004 until 17 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 148 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 013
COMMENT: The minor storm conditions are possible tomorrow because of arrival of
a partial halo CME occurred in the end of August 13.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 101
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 149
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 009
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
14 0536 0544 0552 S11W28 M7.4 2N 96 90 0656
14 0751 0756 0759 S13W32 M2.3 1F 90 0656
14 0952 1007 1017 S14W30 M3.2 1F 25 90 0656
14 1331 1343 1350 S14W34 M5.6 2N 77 90 0656
14 1809 1818 1832 S13W36 M1.3 90 0656 GOES-12/SXI derived
location
14 2009 2016 2059 S13W39 M1.3 90 0656 GOES-12/SXI derived
location
15 0434 0506 0520 S12W44 M1.4 90 0656 SolarSoft derived
location
15 0554 0600 0606 S13W42 M1.4 90 0656 SolarSoft derived
location
15 1123 1132 1148 M2.6 90 0656
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
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