Topbanders FYI de KG7D
-----Original Message-----
From: henry schuett <hschuett@lerc.nasa.gov>
To: <topband@contesting.com>
Date: Thursday, November 06, 1997 9:27 AM
Subject: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning
>Subject: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning
To: <topband@contesting.com>
>>Date: Wed, 5 Nov 1997 13:31:01 -0500
>>
>>
>>Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning
>>
>> (See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)
>>
>> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 - 07 NOV (UT days)
>>MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 08 NOV
>>
>>
>>POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR
>> POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MAJOR TO SEVERE
>>
>>
>> POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 48 HOURS
>> DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: APPROX 24 HOURS ON 07
>>NOV
>>
>>
>>POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 8
>> POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES: 9
>>
>>
>> EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX: 5 TO 6
>> EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX: 6
>>
>>
>> POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE
>> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR
>> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR
>>
>>
>>POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: VERY HIGH
>> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MAJOR
>> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO USELESS
>>
>>
>> POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: VERY HIGH
>> POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MAJOR
>> EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: VERY POOR TO FREQ.
>>USELESS
>>
>>
>>POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS: 60PROBABLE
>>
>>
>>SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
>>A series of coronal mass ejections. The last one observed on 04
>>November
>>that was associated with the major X-class proton flare is expected to
>>produce a major to severe geomagnetic storm on 07 November.
>>
>>
>>---------------------------------
>>---------------------------------
>>EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC
>>IMPACT
>>---------------------------------
>>---------------------------------
>> SEVERE STORM : 25 LOW LATITUDES : STRONG MINOR
>> MAJOR STORM : 40 MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
>> MINOR STORM : 30 HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR
>> ACTIVE OR LESS : 05 POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR
>>---------------------------------
>>---------------------------------
>> PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 90 ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR
>>
>>
>>ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 55 TO 70
>> ---- ---------------
>>
>>
>>COMMENTS:
>>
>>
>> Activity is expected to begin primarily on 06 November with the
>>arrival
>>of one of the coronal mass ejections related to one of the stronger
>>minor
>>M-class flares observed. This activity could result in periods of minor
>>to
>>major geomagnetic storming on 06 November. The largest disturbance is
>>expected to arrive with a fairly vigorous shock-front on 07 November and
>>produce periods of major to severe geomagnetic storming. Currently, the
>>activity on 07 November is expected to reach or exceed major storm
>>levels.
>>A return to quieter levels of activity is not expected until later on 08
>>November, barring further solar outbursts.
>>
>>
>> A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued as well
>>as a
>>low latitude auroral activity watch for 06 and 07 November. Consult the
>>web
>>page at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/aurpred.html for supporting
>>graphics
>>forecasts.
>>
>>** End of Warning **
>
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