To: <topband@contesting.com>
Date: Thursday, November 06, 1997 9:28 AM
Subject: Solar Cycle Status Report
Topband FYI de Bob KG7D
>Subject: Solar Cycle Status Report
To: <topband@contesting.com>
>>Date: Wed, 5 Nov 1997 15:06:17 -0500
>>
>>
>>Solar Cycle Status Report
>>
>>STATUS OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE:
>>
>> Everyone now agrees that we have finally observed the birth of
>>solar
>>cycle 23. We have probably been immersed within this new cycle for some
>>time. According to sunspots, the minimum occurred in May 1996 with an
>>as yet
>>unofficial smoothed sunspot number of 8.1. Since then, we have observed
>>a
>>steady increase in the number of new-cycle sunspots having the proper
>>new-cycle magnetic polarities. At the time of this writing, most of the
>>new
>>sunspots which are appearing are new-cycle spots.
>>
>>
>> According to the number of days in which no sunspots appeared, the
>>cycle
>>minimum (or maximum number of spotless days) occurred in October 1996
>>when
>>there were 26 spotless days. This month also corresponds with the
>>lowest
>>monthly observed sunspot number of 2.3 (reported by SEC) and 1.8
>>(according
>>to the International Relative Sunspot Number [RI]).
>>
>>
>> In addition, butterfly plots showing the emergence of new solar
>>sunspot
>>regions according to solar latitude indicates a clear separation in
>>formation
>>latitudes from old cycle 22 and new cycle 23. There are also many other
>>parameters which have shown that new cycle 23 is now firmly in-progress.
>>
>>
>> This conclusion is a mixed-blessing for industry.
>>
>>
>> Radio communicators can now begin to look forward to an
>>increasinglyproductive reign of ionospheric radio communications. In
>>fact, higher-band
>>high-frequency (HF) radio communications are already beginning to be
>>observed. By July of 1998 (within the next 12 months), the observed
>>sunspot
>>number should almost triple in magnitude from a current predicted
>>smoothed
>>value of 40 for June 1997 (predicted through regression methods) to 109
>>(plus
>>or minus 25) by July 1998. This will substantially increase the
>>strength of
>>the ionosphere. The next year will therefore be an exciting one for
>>radio
>>communicators.
>>
>>
>> The predicted smoothed sunspot number over the next 9 years is
>>predicted to follow this pattern:
>>
>>
>> Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
>>1997 019 022 027 030 034 040 044 050 054 060 066 071
>>1998 077 082 088 093 099 103 109 113 119 123 128 131
>>1999 136 139 142 146 148 151 153 154 156 157 158 159
>>2000 160 160 160 160 159 158 157 156 155 154 152 150
>>2001 148 146 142 140 137 134 131 128 124 121 118 114
>>2002 111 107 103 100 097 093 089 086 082 079 076 072
>>2003 069 066 062 060 057 053 051 048 046 043 041 039
>>2004 036 034 032 030 028 027 024 023 021 020 019 017
>>2005 016 014 013 012 012 011 010 009 009 008 *** ***
>>
>>
>> The predicted smoothed 10.7 cm solar radio flux values over the
>>next 9
>>years is predicted to follow this pattern:
>>
>>
>> Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
>>1997 077 080 084 087 091 096 100 105 109 114 119 124
>>1998 129 134 139 144 149 153 158 162 167 171 175 178
>>1999 182 185 188 191 193 196 198 199 201 202 203 204
>>2000 205 205 205 205 204 203 202 201 200 199 197 195
>>2001 193 191 188 186 183 181 178 175 172 169 166 163
>>2002 160 156 153 150 147 144 140 137 134 131 128 125
>>2003 122 119 116 114 111 108 106 103 101 099 097 095
>>2004 092 091 089 087 085 084 082 081 079 078 077 075
>>2005 074 073 072 071 071 070 069 068 068 067 *** ***
>>
>>
>> Satellite operators and users of satellite technology are less
>>impressed
>>with the onset of this new cycle of activity. The increased number of
>>sunspots implies an attendant increase in the number of solar flares
>>capable
>>of spewing out particles that can charge and damage sensitive electronic
>>components. The number of associated Earth-directed coronal mass
>>ejections
>>will also increase. This all means that users and owners of satellite
>>technology will have to be increasingly aware of potential Earth-bound
>>interplanetary disturbances. The death of the Telstar 401 satellite has
>>beenunofficially attributed to the arrival of such a disturbance,
>>combined with
>>the effects of higher-than-normal densities of energetically charged
>>electrons. That particular interplanetary disturbance was about the
>>size of
>>a mouse when you think of what is yet to come over the next 4 to 6
>>years.
>>The largest interplanetary disturbances which we will observe during
>>solar
>>cycle 23 may be closer in size to an elephant than the small mouse we
>>observed that may have contributed to the sudden death of Telstar 401.
>>The
>>overwhelming message which should be sent to users of satellite
>>technology
>>during this new solar cycle is "be cautious."
>>
>>
>> Electrical hydro operators have enjoyed several years of quiet
>>conditions. Nothing similar in magnitude to the events of March 1989
>>have
>>been observed, where almost the entire electrical grid of electricity
>>supplied to the province of Quebec collapsed within less than 2 minutes
>>due
>>to powerful electrical currents that were induced into Hydro Quebecs
>>electrical power lines during one of the strongest geomagnetic storms on
>>record. Since most of the electrical power lines and companies
>>interconnect
>>their lines, this outage had impacts all across North America. The
>>additional load drawn from other power companies to compensate for the
>>loss
>>observed during the Quebec blackout brought many other power companies
>>close
>>to similar failure conditions. If the situation was slightly worse,
>>other
>>blackouts across North America could have been observed - possibly
>>making
>>this a much larger continent-wide type of power blackout instead of a
>>relatively localized province-wide Quebec blackout.
>>
>>
>> Oak Ridge National Laboratory studied the effects that a
>>geomagnetic
>>storm might have on the U.S. economy if the storm was only slightly
>>larger
>>than the one observed in March 1989. Their estimate of the impact of
>>such a
>>disturbance to the Gross Domestic Product alone put total economic costs
>>in
>>the U.S. in the $3 to $6 BILLION dollar range! This assessment, along
>>with
>>reviews conducted by the North American Electric Reliability Council
>>placed
>>the 1989 and 1991 geomagnetic storm events in a category equivalent to
>>hurricane Hugo and the San Fransisco earthquake in its relative impact
>>to the
>>reliability of the electric power grids in North America. That's a
>>sobering
>>thought for hydro operators and everyone reliant upon electricity!
>>
>>
>> The ability to predict conditions condusive to such large storm
>>events
>>will receive a considerable boost later this year when NASA's ACE
>>satellite
>>(Advanced Composition Explorer) is due to be launched. This satellite
>>will
>>provide near-continuous sampling of the space environment upstream of
>>the
>>Earth. It will provide as much as about 60 minutes of lead-time to the
>>arrival of disturbances at the Earth. This should be sufficient time to
>>allow hydro operators to prepare and watch for the damaging conditions
>>that can follow interplanetary disturbances.
>>
>>
>> Predictions of geomagnetic activity show that the number of minor,
>>major
>>and severe geomagnetic storms will steadily increase. The year with the
>>maximum number of minor storm days is expected in the year 2005 during
>>the
>>decline of solar cycle 23 when the occurrence frequency of geoeffective
>>coronal holes will reach a maximum. Over 40 minor storm days are
>>expected in
>>the year 2005. During the solar maximum year of 2000, coronal mass
>>ejection
>>induced minor storms should number at about 30 during the year. This is
>>more
>>than double the number of minor storm days expected during 1997. Major
>>geomagnetic storming is expected to peak in the years between 1999 and
>>2002.
>>Severe geomagnetic storming, which is very difficult to predict, should
>>peak
>>in frequency between the years 1999 and 2005 with the preferred year of
>>peak
>>severe storm frequency being 2002.
>>
>>
>> People interested in observing aurora's will be happy to know that
>>we
>>are well on our way to seeing larger events. Over the next 3 to 6
>>years, we
>>will see many very significant auroral displays that should cover much
>>of the
>>U.S. and all of Canada. Activity observed during the last 3 years has
>>been
>>very miniscule compared to the events we can expect to observe during
>>this
>>new cycle. The largest of these events should be sufficiently intense
>>to
>>produce visible auroral activity from as far south as Florida! Although
>>this
>>is horrendous news for satellite users, radio communicators, navigators,
>>surveyors and others, it is exciting news for those who love to watch
>>for
>>these awesomely powerful atmospheric displays of activity.
>>
>>
>> The frequency and magnitude of solar flares is also expected to
>>increase
>>considerably over the next 3 to 6 years. Over the last few years, most
>>of
>>the solar flares we have observed have been very small and
>>insignificant. As
>>we approach the new millenium, the influence and power output of solar
>>flares
>>could increase by several orders of magnitude. The largest solar flares
>>of
>>this new solar cycle will almost certainly be at least 10,000 times more
>>powerful than the majority of smaller flares we have observed over the
>>last
>>couple of years. These rogue flares could begin to be observed as early
>>as
>>1998 with a peak expected in the years between 1999 and 2003.
>>
>>
>> Broken down, the number of M-class flares observed during an entire
>>year
>>should follow a pattern similar to this:
>>
>>
>>1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
>>2004
>> 15 40 220 530 370 540
>>
>>
>> The number of X-class flares observed during an entire year should
>>behave similar to this:
>>
>>
>>1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
>>2004
>> 1 5 15 40 30 50
>>
>>
>>
>> Major proton flare events capable of increasing proton densities in
>>the
>>near-Earth space environment are expected to reach a maximum between the
>>years 1999 and 2003 with a double-maximum predicted for the years 2000
>>and
>>2002. The number of predicted solar proton events is expected to
>>increase
>>slightly in 1998 and then more than triple between 1998 and 1999. There
>>could be a fairly copious number of solar proton events during cycle 23.
>>Estimates range from about 8 to as high as about 16 per year during the
>>years
>>of maximum proton flaring.
>>
>>
>> These are just a few of the events we can expect to observe during
>>this
>>new solar cycle.
>>
>>
>> The new millenium should be ushered in a BANG! Periods of solar
>>activity will be observed that will be capable of literally shaking
>>space!
>>
>>
>>Everything from current solar and geophysical indices to
>> current auroral activity sighting reports, daily reports, alerts and
>> warnings, and much more can now be found at:
>>http://solar.uleth.ca/solar
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
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