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TopBand: Fw: Solar Cycle Status Report

To: <topband@contesting.com>
Subject: TopBand: Fw: Solar Cycle Status Report
From: midnite2@concentric.net (Robert A. Kile)
Date: Thu, 6 Nov 1997 11:11:59 -0800
To: <topband@contesting.com>
Date: Thursday, November 06, 1997 9:28 AM
Subject: Solar Cycle Status Report

Topband FYI de Bob KG7D


>Subject: Solar Cycle Status Report
To: <topband@contesting.com>
>>Date: Wed, 5 Nov 1997 15:06:17 -0500
>>
>>
>>Solar Cycle Status Report
>>
>>STATUS OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE:
>>
>>     Everyone now agrees that we have finally observed the birth of
>>solar
>>cycle 23.  We have probably been immersed within this new cycle for some
>>time.  According to sunspots, the minimum occurred in May 1996 with an
>>as yet
>>unofficial smoothed sunspot number of 8.1.  Since then, we have observed
>>a
>>steady increase in the number of new-cycle sunspots having the proper
>>new-cycle magnetic polarities.  At the time of this writing, most of the
>>new
>>sunspots which are appearing are new-cycle spots.
>>
>>
>>     According to the number of days in which no sunspots appeared, the
>>cycle
>>minimum (or maximum number of spotless days) occurred in October 1996
>>when
>>there were 26 spotless days.  This month also corresponds with the
>>lowest
>>monthly observed sunspot number of 2.3 (reported by SEC) and 1.8
>>(according
>>to the International Relative Sunspot Number [RI]).
>>
>>
>>     In addition, butterfly plots showing the emergence of new solar
>>sunspot
>>regions according to solar latitude indicates a clear separation in
>>formation
>>latitudes from old cycle 22 and new cycle 23.  There are also many other
>>parameters which have shown that new cycle 23 is now firmly in-progress.
>>
>>
>>     This conclusion is a mixed-blessing for industry.
>>
>>
>>     Radio communicators can now begin to look forward to an 
>>increasinglyproductive reign of ionospheric radio communications.  In
>>fact, higher-band
>>high-frequency (HF) radio communications are already beginning to be
>>observed.  By July of 1998 (within the next 12 months), the observed
>>sunspot
>>number should almost triple in magnitude from a current predicted
>>smoothed
>>value of 40 for June 1997 (predicted through regression methods) to 109
>>(plus
>>or minus 25) by July 1998.  This will substantially increase the
>>strength of
>>the ionosphere.  The next year will therefore be an exciting one for
>>radio
>>communicators.
>>
>>
>>     The predicted smoothed sunspot number over the next 9 years is
>>predicted to follow this pattern:
>>
>>
>>        Jan  Feb Mar  Apr May Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep Oct  Nov Dec
>>1997  019  022  027  030  034  040  044  050  054  060  066  071
>>1998  077  082  088  093  099  103  109  113  119  123  128  131
>>1999  136  139  142  146  148  151  153  154  156  157  158  159
>>2000  160  160  160  160  159  158  157  156  155  154  152  150
>>2001  148  146  142  140  137  134  131  128  124  121  118  114
>>2002  111  107  103  100  097  093  089  086  082  079  076  072
>>2003  069  066  062  060  057  053  051  048  046  043  041  039
>>2004  036  034  032  030  028  027  024  023  021  020  019  017
>>2005  016  014  013  012  012  011  010  009  009  008  ***  ***
>>
>>
>>     The predicted smoothed 10.7 cm solar radio flux values over the
>>next 9
>>years is predicted to follow this pattern:
>>
>>
>>       Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May Jun Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct Nov Dec
>>1997  077  080  084  087  091  096  100  105  109  114  119  124
>>1998  129  134  139  144  149  153  158  162  167  171  175  178
>>1999  182  185  188  191  193  196  198  199  201  202  203  204
>>2000  205  205  205  205  204  203  202  201  200  199  197  195
>>2001  193  191  188  186  183  181  178  175  172  169  166  163
>>2002  160  156  153  150  147  144  140  137  134  131  128  125
>>2003  122  119  116  114  111  108  106  103  101  099  097  095
>>2004  092  091  089  087  085  084  082  081  079  078  077  075
>>2005  074  073  072  071  071  070  069  068  068  067  ***  ***
>>
>>
>>     Satellite operators and users of satellite technology are less
>>impressed
>>with the onset of this new cycle of activity.  The increased number of
>>sunspots implies an attendant increase in the number of solar flares
>>capable
>>of spewing out particles that can charge and damage sensitive electronic
>>components.  The number of associated Earth-directed coronal mass
>>ejections
>>will also increase.  This all means that users and owners of satellite
>>technology will have to be increasingly aware of potential Earth-bound
>>interplanetary disturbances.  The death of the Telstar 401 satellite has
>>beenunofficially attributed to the arrival of such a disturbance,
>>combined with
>>the effects of higher-than-normal densities of energetically charged
>>electrons.  That particular interplanetary disturbance was about the
>>size of
>>a mouse when you think of what is yet to come over the next 4 to 6
>>years.
>>The largest interplanetary disturbances which we will observe during
>>solar
>>cycle 23 may be closer in size to an elephant than the small mouse we
>>observed that may have contributed to the sudden death of Telstar 401.
>>The
>>overwhelming message which should be sent to users of satellite
>>technology
>>during this new solar cycle is "be cautious."
>>
>>
>>     Electrical hydro operators have enjoyed several years of quiet
>>conditions.  Nothing similar in magnitude to the events of March 1989
>>have
>>been observed, where almost the entire electrical grid of electricity
>>supplied to the province of Quebec collapsed within less than 2 minutes
>>due
>>to powerful electrical currents that were induced into Hydro Quebecs
>>electrical power lines during one of the strongest geomagnetic storms on
>>record.  Since most of the electrical power lines and companies
>>interconnect
>>their lines, this outage had impacts all across North America.  The
>>additional load drawn from other power companies to compensate for the
>>loss
>>observed during the Quebec blackout brought many other power companies
>>close
>>to similar failure conditions.  If the situation was slightly worse,
>>other
>>blackouts across North America could have been observed - possibly
>>making
>>this a much larger continent-wide type of power blackout instead of a
>>relatively localized province-wide Quebec blackout.
>>
>>
>>     Oak Ridge National Laboratory studied the effects that a
>>geomagnetic
>>storm might have on the U.S. economy if the storm was only slightly
>>larger
>>than the one observed in March 1989.  Their estimate of the impact of
>>such a
>>disturbance to the Gross Domestic Product alone put total economic costs
>>in
>>the U.S. in the $3 to $6 BILLION dollar range!  This assessment, along
>>with
>>reviews conducted by the North American Electric Reliability Council
>>placed
>>the 1989 and 1991 geomagnetic storm events in a category equivalent to
>>hurricane Hugo and the San Fransisco earthquake in its relative impact
>>to the
>>reliability of the electric power grids in North America.  That's a
>>sobering
>>thought for hydro operators and everyone reliant upon electricity!
>>
>>
>>     The ability to predict conditions condusive to such large storm
>>events
>>will receive a considerable boost later this year when NASA's ACE
>>satellite
>>(Advanced Composition Explorer) is due to be launched.  This satellite
>>will
>>provide near-continuous sampling of the space environment upstream of
>>the
>>Earth.  It will provide as much as about 60 minutes of lead-time to the
>>arrival of disturbances at the Earth.  This should be sufficient time to
>>allow hydro operators to prepare and watch for the damaging conditions 
>>that can follow interplanetary disturbances.
>>
>>
>>     Predictions of geomagnetic activity show that the number of minor,
>>major
>>and severe geomagnetic storms will steadily increase.  The year with the
>>maximum number of minor storm days is expected in the year 2005 during
>>the
>>decline of solar cycle 23 when the occurrence frequency of geoeffective
>>coronal holes will reach a maximum.  Over 40 minor storm days are
>>expected in
>>the year 2005.  During the solar maximum year of 2000, coronal mass
>>ejection
>>induced minor storms should number at about 30 during the year.  This is
>>more
>>than double the number of minor storm days expected during 1997.  Major
>>geomagnetic storming is expected to peak in the years between 1999 and
>>2002.
>>Severe geomagnetic storming, which is very difficult to predict, should
>>peak
>>in frequency between the years 1999 and 2005 with the preferred year of
>>peak
>>severe storm frequency being 2002.
>>
>>
>>     People interested in observing aurora's will be happy to know that
>>we
>>are well on our way to seeing larger events.  Over the next 3 to 6
>>years, we
>>will see many very significant auroral displays that should cover much
>>of the
>>U.S. and all of Canada.  Activity observed during the last 3 years has
>>been
>>very miniscule compared to the events we can expect to observe during
>>this
>>new cycle.  The largest of these events should be sufficiently intense
>>to
>>produce visible auroral activity from as far south as Florida!  Although
>>this
>>is horrendous news for satellite users, radio communicators, navigators,
>>surveyors and others, it is exciting news for those who love to watch
>>for
>>these awesomely powerful atmospheric displays of activity.
>>
>>
>>     The frequency and magnitude of solar flares is also expected to
>>increase
>>considerably over the next 3 to 6 years.  Over the last few years, most
>>of
>>the solar flares we have observed have been very small and
>>insignificant.  As
>>we approach the new millenium, the influence and power output of solar
>>flares
>>could increase by several orders of magnitude.  The largest solar flares
>>of
>>this new solar cycle will almost certainly be at least 10,000 times more
>>powerful than the majority of smaller flares we have observed over the
>>last
>>couple of years. These rogue flares could begin to be observed as early
>>as
>>1998 with a peak expected in the years between 1999 and 2003.
>>
>>
>>     Broken down, the number of M-class flares observed during an entire
>>year
>>should follow a pattern similar to this:
>>
>>
>>1997      1998      1999      2000      2001      2002      2003
>>2004
>> 15          40         220       530        370        540
>>
>>
>>     The number of X-class flares observed during an entire year should
>>behave similar to this:
>>
>>
>>1997      1998      1999      2000      2001      2002      2003
>>2004
>>  1           5          15          40          30         50
>>     
>>
>>
>>     Major proton flare events capable of increasing proton densities in
>>the
>>near-Earth space environment are expected to reach a maximum between the
>>years 1999 and 2003 with a double-maximum predicted for the years 2000
>>and
>>2002.  The number of predicted solar proton events is expected to
>>increase
>>slightly in 1998 and then more than triple between 1998 and 1999.  There
>>could be a fairly copious number of solar proton events during cycle 23.
>>Estimates range from about 8 to as high as about 16 per year during the
>>years
>>of maximum proton flaring.
>>
>>
>>     These are just a few of the events we can expect to observe during
>>this
>>new solar cycle.
>>
>>
>>     The new millenium should be ushered in a BANG!  Periods of solar
>>activity will be observed that will be capable of literally shaking
>>space!
>>
>>
>>Everything from current solar and geophysical indices to
>> current auroral activity sighting reports, daily reports, alerts and
>> warnings, and much more can now be found at:
>>http://solar.uleth.ca/solar
>>
>>
>>
>>
>


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