From: "Bill Turner" <wrt@dslextreme.com>
> On Sun, 2 May 2004 15:48:06 EDT, PaulKB8N@aol.com wrote:
>
> >I hardly think the Prius is "what we civilians need". When you amortize
the
> >additional cost for the technology and basically two engines and two fuel
> >systems (gasoline and electrical), you really gain nothing in terms of
economy.
>
> I wasn't speaking about economy. If overall economy is your desire, a
> used four-banger is your cheapest ride.
>
> The context of the conversation was about developments which improve
> things. IMO, we need to reduce smog, green up the earth and reduce our
> dependence on oil (not just foreign oil, all oil).
>
At today's fuel prices, none of these things make a whole
lot of economic sense. If you are just commuting to work,
gas is still relatively cheap. Improving fuel economy will just
postpone the invitable transition that we are going to have
make off of fossil fuels. Right now the emerging third world
is ramping up in terms of its fossil fuel consumption. China
for instance I think only has something like 35 million
automobiles. Thats like 1 car for every 30 people. Compare
that with the US!! As countries like China continue to
industrialize and gain more economic prosperity, then
demand for oil is going to skyrocket against a relatively stiff
supply. Some have suggested that is why gas prices are
sitting at >$2/gal out here in California. Demand is high and
will continue to grow. Even if everyone is driving a Prius,
we are still going to have big problems when per capita
automobile ownership in places like China and India start to
approach that of the West.
Fuel cells are wonderful if you can figure out a way to make
produce hydrogen without fossil fuels. This is the part of the
equation that many proponents of the Hydrogen economy fail
to mention. Hydrogen isn't really a primary source of energy,
its really just a method of energy storage. You still have to
separate it from oxygen which is where you add the energy.
If you are doing that with electricity from a coal burning
power plant, you really haven't fixed all the environmental
problems. That will help with urban smog problems, but
it won't solve the carbon problem. In fact, I think I read
somewhere that you would have to DOUBLE the US
electrical power generating capacity if you were to convert
automobiles to fuels cells that use hydrogen derived from
electrolysis. This is the real challenge of the hydrogen
economy. Find a way to produce hydrogen in abundance
with non-polutting renewable sources. Sounds easy -
does hard.
In any case, the whole economic equation will change
when gas hits $10/gallon.
73 de Mike, W4EF...................................
P.S. Sorry this has very little to do with RFI, but its an interesting
discussion.
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