[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels with several low level M-class flares from Regions 3213 (N31W21, Eki/beta-gamma) and 3217 (S10E66, Dko/beta). The largest flare was an M3/1f at 09/0310 UTC from 3217. 3213 continued to exhibit growth in its intermediate spots and maintained a beta-gamma configuration. Accurate analysis for 3217 is difficult due to foreshortening near the east limb. New spotted groups are rotating onto both the SE and NE limbs. Region 3218 (N15E56, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period and was inactive. The remaining five other active regions were stable and quiet.

Multiple CMEs were observed off the SE and SW limbs. Type II (672 km/s) and IV radio sweeps were observed-likely associated with the CME departing the SW limb. Initial analysis suggests none of these CMEs are Earth-directed. However, further analysis and modeling are underway at the time of this summary.

Forecast: Solar activity will likely continue at moderate levels 09-11 Feb due to occasional M-class flares, with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare due to the flare potential of Regions 3213 and 3217.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,520 pfu at 08/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate to high over 09-10 Feb before returning to normal to moderate levels on 11 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was between 5-8 nT and the Bz component was +/- 7 nT. Solar wind speeds were generally between 500-600 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Negative polarity CH HSS influence is anticipated to persist, although weakening, through 10 Feb. Additional enhancements in the IMF on 09 Feb are also possible due to glancing CME effects from events that took place 04-05 Feb. An ambient-like environment is anticipated on 11 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected on 09 Feb under negative polarity CH HSS effects and possible flanking CME influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected 10 Feb, then mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 11 Feb.

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