[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels due to an M6.3 flare at 07/2307 UTC from Region 3213 (N31W07, Dki/beta-gamma). This AR was also responsible for additional M-class and C-class activity. Another notable event possibly associated with this AR was a CME emerging to the NNE in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 07/1512 UTC. This CME has been analyzed and determined to not have an Earth-directed component. An additional M1 flare was observed from a region just beyond the SE limb occurred at 07/1353 UTC. The remaining regions were stable and relatively quiet in comparison. Region 3214 (N13E13, Dao/beta) showed minor growth and gained a few intermediate spots as its penumbra matured on both poles.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares over 08-10 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate to high over 08-10 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field was between 5-8 nT. The Bz component was variable and briefly reached a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 520 km/s.

Forecast: Negative polarity CH HSS influence is anticipated to persist, although weakening, through 8 Feb. A further, more marked decline towards a background-like state is expected to begin on 09 Feb and continue through 10 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected 08 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS effects continue. Primarily quiet conditions, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, are expected 09-10 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS effects taper off.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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