[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3207 (S13E17, Cai/beta) and new Region 3211 (S16W22, Bxo/beta) were responsible for the majority of the low level C-class activity. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3209 (N18E48, Dro/beta), 3210 (S15W12, Cro/beta), and 3211. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

An 8 degree filament centered near N25W10 began erupting at 03/0844 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. A possible associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the NW beginning at 03/1036 UTC. The CME is currently being remodeled.

Another filament eruption that occurred in the SE near S15E50 at 04/0040 UTC had a likely associated CME off the E limb in C2 imagery beginning at 04/0125 UTC. Modelling is currently in progress.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 04-06 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 04-06 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced early in the period with total field reaching 11 nT and the Bz component near -8 nT. By 03/1800 UTC, total field began to decrease to around 5-7 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 370 km/s to near 300 km/s. Phi angle became variable after 03/1947 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels on 04-05 Feb. Late on 06 Feb, parameters are expected to increase due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are expected on 04-05 Feb followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 06 Feb due to CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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