[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels as Region 3204 (N24, L=033) produced a C3.4 flare at 01/1801 UTC followed later by a C5.8 flare at 01/2248 UTC, the largest of the period.

Region 3207 (S11E53, Cao/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, while the remaining regions were mostly stable. New Region 3208 (N16E45, Cro/beta) was numbered during the period, but was mostly stable and inactive.

A CME was observed off the NW limb associated with a filament eruption near Region 3201 (N24W56, Hsx/alpha). Modeling is underway at the time of this writing but initial analysis suggests the ejecta to be north and ahead of Earths orbit.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 Feb, mostly due to activity from Region 3207.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 02-04 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a mostly nominal solar wind regime, with enhancements between ~01/1600-02/0200 UTC. Just after 01/1800 UTC, total field increased to eventually peak near 11 nT before settling at 5 nT. Bz saw a pronounced southward deviation to -10 nT followed by a sustained period of -5 to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 440 km/s. Phi remained in a negative orientation.

Forecast: Periodic enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible on 02 Feb with suspected CH HSS influence. Late on 03 Feb, CH HSS effects are expected to begin a gradual decline, returning to a more background-like state by late 03 Feb/early 04 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the 02/00-03Z synoptic period due to a sustained period of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 02 Feb. By 03 Feb, activity is expected to gradually diminish as negative polarity CH HSS gradually subsides.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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