[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Several low level C-class flares were observed during the period, keeping activity at low levels. Region 3207 (S11E59, Cao/beta) was responsible for the majority of the C-class flaring during the period, despite exhibiting only minor changes. Region 3206 (S22E27, Cao/beta) also produced a C-class flare, as did Region 3204 (N24W78, Cso/beta). Region 3204 became too foreshortened to conduct an accurate analysis as its rotated nearly out of view. Two new spots emerged during the period in NE quadrant. At the time of this summary they are single spot groups and we await further observations before assigning region numbers. The remaining spotted regions were mostly stable and inactive.

A large prominence eruption and associated CME was observed beginning near 01/0600 UTC off the NNW limb. This event originated on the far side of the disk and is not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 01-03 Feb, mostly due to activity from Regions 3206 and 3207.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels early, increasing to moderate to high levels on 01 Feb, continuing through 03 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a return to nominal conditions. Total field strength decreased from 7-3 nT, Bz was variable between +/-4 nT, and solar wind speeds decreased from ~475-360 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible through 01 Feb with CH HSS influence. Late on 02 Feb into 03 Feb, CH HSS effects are expected to taper off, returning to a more background-like state.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 01-02 Feb. By 03 Feb, activity is expected to taper off as the negative polarity CH HSS moves out of its geoeffective position.

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