[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest flare was a C3 at 28/1201 UTC from Region 3200 (N21W23, Bxo/beta). Slight growth was observed in Regions 3204 (N24W40, Cro/beta) and 3205 (S24W41, Bxo/beta). Region 3199 (N19W61) reemerged as a simple Axx/alpha group. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 29-31 Jan, mostly due to activity from active regions just beyond the SE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to increase to moderate to high levels due to an elevated solar wind profile on 29-31 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be under HSS influence. Solar wind speed ranged from 471-572 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive with deviations into a negative sector after 28/2344 UTC.

Forecast: HSS conditions are expected to decrease on 29-30 Jan as CH effects dissipate. Mostly nominal wind conditions are expected on 31 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 29-31 Jan.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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