[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3202 (N11W86, Hrx/alpha) produced several low level C-class flares. The largest was a C2 flare at 28/0831 UTC. Regions 3202 and 3196 (N17W77, Axx/alpha) were in decay as they approached the west limb. New spot formation was observed in the NW quadrant and numbered as Region 3204 (N24W26, Bxo/beta). The rest of the spot groups were relatively stable or in decay. Although plage has been observed on the SE limb where there was activity over the last 24 hours, there continues to be brightening just beyond the limb, likely the return of old Region 3182 (S17, L=226) around 30 Jan.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 28-30 Jan, mostly due to activity from an active region just beyond the SE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to increase to moderate to high levels due to an elevated solar wind profile on 28-30 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed continued to be elevated under a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 489-590 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: HSS Conditions should begin to gradually decrease by late 28 Jan as CH effects dissipate. Mostly nominal wind conditions are expected on 29-30 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 28 Jan as HSS effects linger. By 29-30 Jan, conditions are expected to return to more nominal levels.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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