[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 3151 (S16W73, Cso/beta) and 3152 (N27W05, Bxo/beta) were stable and in decay.

A filament/prominence eruption occurred from along the southeast limb beginning near 28/2049 UTC as seen in GOES/SUVI 304A imagery. This event was modeled and determined to be a clear miss.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-flares through 01 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach high levels on 29 Nov with elevated solar winds and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Earth remained under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds started the day around 540 km/s and increased to near 660 km/s. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT and Bz deviated southward early and late in the day, reaching a maximum southward deviation of -10 nT at 28/0033 UTC.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to last through 01 Dec due to the influences of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels while under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected through 29 Nov with ongoing CH HSS (+) activity, along with the anticipated arrival of another positive polarity CH HSS. Isolated G1 (Minor) storming is also possible. A third CH HSS is forecast to arrive on Day 3 (01 Dec) with stronger winds, prompting a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm Watch.

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