[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to Multiple C-class flares from Region 3151 (S15W01, Dao/beta). The largest was a C4/Sf at 22/1908 UTC. Region 3151 continued to show slight growth over the period. New trailing spots emerged in Region 3147 (S12W15, Cao/beta). Region 3149 (N23W10, Dao/beta) was relatively stable.

The southerly CME from a C7 flare at 22/0724 UTC, which was first observed in SOHO-NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 22/0800 UTC, indicates that the bulk of the ejecta will pass south of Earth, but some glancing influence is possible early on 27 Nov. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 23-25 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 23-25 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 375 km/s to near 310 km/s. Total field was below 5 nT. Phi angle became variable after 23/0445 UTC.

DSCOVR and ACE data were unavailable from 23/0827 UTC until around 23/1230 UTC due to electrical work being performed at a tracking station. Solar wind data during the outage could be found at https://space.umd.edu/pm/

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to bring enhanced parameters beginning on 24 Nov and continuing through 25 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 23 Nov followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 24-25 Nov with isolated active periods possible due to CH HSS onset.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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