[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to C-flare activity from Regions 3149 (N22E03, Dao/beta) and 3151 (S14E12, Cro/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C7/Sf at 22/0727 UTC from Region 3151. Region 3149 consolidated its leader and trailing spots while the majority of the intermediate spots decayed. Slight growth was observed in Region 3151. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 22-24 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 22-24 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 372-436 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a negative orientation while undertaking brief excursions into a positive solar sector.

Forecast: A enhancement is possible late on 22 Nov to early 23 Nov due to a possible glancing blow from the 19 Nov CME. Additional disturbances are expected late on 24 Nov due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22-24 Nov due to a possible glancing blow from the 19 Nov CME followed by the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS late on 24 Nov.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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