[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Nov 14 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Nov 14 0703 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 November 2022

Solar activity was at low to high levels. Low levels were observed on 08-10 Nov and again on 13 Nov. Moderate levels occurred on 11-12 Nov due to M1 flare activity from Region 3141 (N14, L=318, class/area Eki/610 on 11 Nov). These flares were an M1/1f at 11/0714 UTC, an M1/Sn at 11/1140 UTC, and an M1/Sf at 12/0018 UTC as well as a total of 41 C-flares. High levels occurred on 07 Nov (reported on previous weekly) due to an M5 flare from Region 3141 at 07/0011 UTC along with an associated Type II radio sweep and a 740 sfu Tenflare. Region 3141 continued to exhibit growth through 11 Nov and developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class on 10-11 Nov before slowly decaying to near 270 millionths by 13 Nov. Region 3140 (N25, L=326, class/area Dai/230 on 13 Nov) began to exhibit growth and development of trailing spots beginning on 11 Nov and was responsible for 12 C-flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 07 and 10-11 Nov due to weak transient activity. The peak flux was 9,400 pfu at 07/0925 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. Solar wind parameters indicated a possible weak transient on 07-08 Nov. Total field increased to near 15 nT while the Bz component deflected southward from approximately 07/0845-1745 reaching a maximum of -15 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G1 (Minor) storming on 07 Nov followed by quiet to active levels on 08 Nov and quiet to unsettled levels on 09 Nov. Quiet conditions were observed on 10 Nov under a nominal solar wind regime. On 11-13 Nov a weak, negative polarity, CH HSS became geoeffective. Solar wind speed increased to near 490 km/s by midday on 12 Nov. Total field increased to near 14 nT late on 11 Nov before declining to near 6-7 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 11-13 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 November - 10 December 2022

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the outlook period (14 Nov-10 Dec). There is a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 14-16 Nov and again on 28 Nov-10 Dec due to the flare potential of Regions 3140 and 3141.

There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 14-17 Nov due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 3140 and 3141.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-29 Nov and again on 02-05 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 15-16 Nov, 20-22 Nov, 24-28 Nov, 01-03 Dec, and 08-09 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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