[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3141 (N14W34, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the largest event of the period, a C6/Sf at 12/1804 UTC. The region was in gradual decay over the past 24 hours. Region 3140 (N26W40, Dsi/beta) exhibited consolidation in its leader spot and minor development among its intermediate spots. Region 3145 (N25W25, Bxo/beta) change little throughout the period. Newly numbered Region 3146 (N31E37, Bxo/beta) was relatively quiet as it developed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 13-15 Nov due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3141.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decayed to low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 13-15 Nov. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to become enhanced due to significant flare potential from Regions 3140 and 3141.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested waning effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 5-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +6/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds were in gradual decline, from ~500 km/s to near 450 km/s near the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 13 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS activity. A gradual return towards nominal levels is expected over 14 Nov. By late on 15 Nov, a more enhanced environment is expected due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to isolated unsettled levels on 13 Nov as solar wind enhancements wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over 14 Nov through most of 15 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected late on 15 Nov due to CH HSS influences.

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