[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity returned to low levels this period. Region 3105 (S17E39, Dhi/beta) produced a pair of C-class flares, including a C6/1n flare at 21/2320 UTC and a C7.8 flare at 22/1134 UTC. This region saw a slight increase in its intermediate spots, but showed little overall growth. Region 3107 (S25E51, Cao/beta) was mostly unchanged and stable. Region 3109 (N10W06, Cro/beta) was numbered during the period and was responsible for a few low level C-class enhancements. The remaining regions were mostly stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 22-24 Sep. The chance for elevated activity is due primarily to the recent flare history of Regions 3105 and 3107.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced, but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold of 10 pfu.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 22 Sep. An increase to high levels is anticipated on 23-24 Sep due to high speed winds associated with a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background levels over the next several days, barring any significant solar flare activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a near-background solar wind regime. Solar wind speed decreased to just above 400 km/s, total field strength was steady between 4-6 nT before decreasing to 1-2 nT, and Bz was mostly positive with no significant southward deviations. Phi angle was predominantly negative, with isolated oscillations into a positive orientation.

Forecast: A good portion of 22 Sep is likely to see benign solar wind conditions. By mid to late in the UT day on 22 Sep, a possible CIR is anticipated in advance of a large, equatorial CH HSS from a positive polarity recurrent CH feature. As a result, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on 22-24 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the majority of 22 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by mid to late in the UT day on 22 Sep as a positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to move into a geoeffective position. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 23 Sep as a CH HSS moves further into a geoeffective position. Quiet to Active conditions are expected for 24 Sep.

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