[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels again today as newly numbered Region 3107 (S24E67, Hax/alpha) produced an isolated M1 (R1-Minor) flare at 21/0702 UTC.

Region 3102 (S25W33, Eko/beta) produced a long duration C7.7/1f event at 20/1503 UTC. The optical flare associated with this event displayed a ribbon characteristic. The region continued to show consolidation and overall decay in its trailer spots.

Region 3105 (S16E52, Dsi/beta) continued to rotate into view, showing more spots and added complexity. Despite its size and complexity, the region has remained relatively quiet. This new spot group is likely the return of old Region 3089 (S23, L=197).

Region 3106 (S12E44, Axx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. Region 3108 (S13E23, Axx/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was also quiescent.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 21-23 Sep. The chance for elevated activity is due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3102 and 3107.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced near 1 pfu, but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold of 10 pfu.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 21-22 Sep. An increase to high levels is anticipated on 23 Sep due to high speed winds associated with a geoeffective coronal hole wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background levels over the next several days, barring any significant solar flare activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a fairly stable environment throughout the day. Solar wind speed averaged near 490 km/s, total field strength was steady between 4-6 nT, while the Bz generally fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominantly negative orientation.

Forecast: Background solar wind conditions are likely to persist through 21 Sep. By midday on 22 Sep, a possible CIR is anticipated in advance of a large, equatorial CH HSS. As a result, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on 22-23 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field activity continued to see quiet to unsettled levels as negative polarity CH HSS influence lingered.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 21 Sep as negative polarity CH HSS influence diminishes. Quiet to isolated active conditions are expected by midday on 22 Sep as a positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to move into a geoeffective position. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 23 Sep as this CH HSS moves further into a geoeffective position.

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