[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with five sunspot groups present on the visible disk. Region 3092 (S10W33, Hsx/alpha) was stable and Region 3097 (S11W19, Bxo/beta) underwent decay. Regions 3094 (N18W06, Axx/alpha) and 3098 (N17E11, Cro/beta) underwent periods of dissipation and re-emergence, but experienced mainly decay later in the period. Region 3096 (N16E39, Dsi/beta) experienced some growth in its intermediate spots, but minor decay in lead and trailer spots. The region produced a C2 flare at 09/0213 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a continuing chance for C-flares 09-11 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels 09-11 Sep. 10 MeV protons observed at GOES are anticipated to be at background ambient conditions 09-11 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds fluctuated mainly between 475 - 550 km/s. Total IMF strength was 5-7 nT, and the Bz component underwent periods of prolonged southward deviations, with max deflections of -7 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, with a trend towards background levels on 09-11 Sep as CH HSS influences gradually wane. ---------------------- Page Break ----------------------

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected through shortly after mid-UTC day, followed by unsettled to active levels due to persistent CH HSS effects. Geomagnetic responses are expected to diminish to mainly quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Sep as CH HSS effects wane. A return to quiet conditions is expected on 11 Sep.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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