[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3092 (S10W20, Hsx/alpha) was stable, while Region 3093 (S26W31) decayed to plage. Region 3094 (N21E06, Cro/beta) was variable in growth/dissipation, but underwent decay overall. Both Regions 3096 (N18E51, Dsi/beta) and 3097 (S12W05, Dro/beta) underwent growth earlier, but showed signs of decay as the period progressed. New NOAA/SWPC Region 3098 (N15E27, Bxo/beta) was assigned to a small area of emergent spots that produced a few optical subflares. No notable flares occurred and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a continuing chance for C-flares 08-10 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to maintain high levels on 08-10 Sep. 10 MeV protons observed at GOES are anticipated to be at background ambient conditions 08-10 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds unsteadily decreased from 575 km/s to 500 km/s, with a few brief, earlier escalations to near 600 km/s. Total IMF strength was 5-7 nT, and the Bz component underwent periods of prolonged southward deviations, with max deflection of -6 nT. The phi angle remained predominantly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, with a trend towards background levels, on 08-10 Sep as CH HSS influences gradually wane. ---------------------- Page Break ----------------------

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic response is anticipated to decrease as CH HSS influence wanes over the next three days. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected the remainder of 08 Sep, with quiet to unsettled levels likely 09-10 Sep as the CH HSS rotates around the western limb and out of a geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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