[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with several C-class flares. Most of them were produced by newly numbered Region 3089 (S23E65, Dsi/beta). Region 3085 (N30W27, Dko/beta) produced isolated B-level enhancements. The other new Region 3088 (S23W65, Dai/beta) also contributed a C1 flare during the period. There was a partial halo CME biased to the west, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery near 25/0348 UTC. This event appears to be far-sided as there is no obvious feature to associate it with on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flares likely, and a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) 24-26 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels through 27 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at background levels. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 6 nT and its Bz component was mostly in a positive orientation. Solar wind speeds decreased below 400 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Mostly nominal, background conditions are expected 25-26 Aug. Minor enhancements to the solar wind is possible on 27 Aug with + CH influences possible.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are forecast through 26 Aug with background solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels are possible on 27 Aug with possible + CH influences.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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