[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 3085 (N25W14, Dki/beta) grew in area and produced isolated B-level enhancements. Region 3086 (S21E38, Cao/beta) underwent minor decay. Region 3087 (S15E59, Hax/alpha) consisted of a single, unipolar spot and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flares likely, and a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) 24-26 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. A peak flux of 4,360 pfu was observed at 23/1455 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels through 26 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to trend towards background levels. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 6 nT and its Bz component was mostly in a neutral or positive orientation. Solar wind speeds settled to less than 450 km/s. The phi angle was firmly negative.

Forecast: Mostly nominal, background conditions are expected over the next three days (24-26 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are forecast through 26 Aug with background solar wind conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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