[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jun 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jun 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels following an isolated C1 flare at 29/2313 UTC from a region just beyond the NE limb. A new region appears to be developing in the SE quadrant of the visible disk, but has yet to be numbered. The remaining numbered regions were all in decay.

Starting around 28/2200 UTC, an eruptive filament was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery near center disk. Available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery did not suggest the bulk of the eruptive material escaped the corona. However, later arriving NASA STEREO A COR2 data shows a faint slow CME on the Earth side of the Sun. The bulk of the material is on a trajectory north of Earth. The slow speeds and trajectory suggest weak glancing blow influence (at most) outside of the 3-day forecast period. Model runs suggest weak impacts on 4 July. No other Earth-directed CMEs were noted. A handful of CMEs off the Sun-Earth line or far side were observed, including a far-sided, partial halo CME first visible in C2 imagery near 30/0300 UTC.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 30 Jun - 02 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 30 Jun - 02 Jul due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from around 475 km/s to near 400 km/s with persistent HSS influence and possible current sheet interaction. Total field strength peaked at 6 nT and the Bz component, while variable, did not undergo any significant north-south deviations. Phi was mostly oriented in a negative solar sector but rotated into a positive sector periodically.

Forecast: Enhancements to solar wind parameters are possible on 30 Jun - 02 Jul with a pair of CMEs that left the Sun on 26 and 27 Jun. These CMEs are not expected to have a direct impact on Earth but may pass close enough to enhance the IMF. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels as the two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 26 and 27 Jun will keep unsettled conditions in the forecast through 02 Jun. There is a chance for active levels being reached if these CMEs track nearer to Earth than model runs indicate.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation