[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jun 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jun 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 3040 (S12W39, Dso/beta) was in slow decay. Region 3042 (N08W35, Cro/beta) developed an immature, leading spot but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining two numbered regions were in decay. Starting around 28/2200 UTC an eruptive filament was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery near center disk. Available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery does not suggest the bulk of the eruptive material escaped the corona. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 29 Jun - 01 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29 Jun - 01 Jul due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds were steady around 500 km/s with persistent HSS influence and possible current sheet interaction. Total field strength peaked at 6 nT and the Bz component, while variable, did not undergo any significant north-south deviations. Phi was mostly oriented in a negative solar sector but rotated into a positive sector periodically.

Forecast: Enhancements to the solar wind parameters are possible on 29 Jun - 01 Jul with a pair of CMEs that left the Sun on 26 and 27 Jun. These CMEs are not expected to have a direct impact on Earth but may pass close enough to enhance the IMF. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels. One unsettled period was observed the last period of the day on 28 Jun.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through the rest of 29 Jun with intermittent current sheet interactions and elevated wind speeds. Possible glancing influence from two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 26 and 27 Jun will keep unsettled conditions in the forecast through 01 Jun. There is a chance for active levels being reached if these CMEs track nearer to Earth than model runs indicate.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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