[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were five numbered regions this period, all of which were relatively stable and quiet. Regions 2902 (N18W01, Cro/beta) and 2903 (S15E47, Bxo/beta) formed this period, but as mentioned, were unremarkable.

The filament eruption on 29 Nov centered near S70E04 was modeled and determined to most likely be a glancing, southward blow with a low confidence arrival of early to midday on 03 Dec.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for isolated C-class flare activity, over 30 Nov-02 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate through 02 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected ambient-like, background conditions. Total field ranged 1-5 nT, the Bz component was near neutral, and wind speeds continued to decline from ~365 km/s to ~330 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly negative until near 30/0345 UTC when it became positive. Forecast: Mostly background conditions are expected until and through most of 02 Dec when enhancements are likely to begin due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are likely to continue into 02 Dec. Late on 02 Dec a chance for unsettled activity will arise due to positive polarity CH HSS effects becoming geoeffective.

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