[Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 Nov 30 20:00 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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The following is the weekly propagation bulletin from W1AW / ARRL (posting on 20211130 20:00 UTC):

QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 30, 2021 To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

Last Friday's Propagation Forecast bulletin was delayed due to the Thanksgiving holiday and K7RA hospitalization.

Average daily sunspot numbers for the reporting week, (November 18-24) were off by 4 points from 30.9 to 26.9, and average daily solar flux went from 80.8 to 80.1.

Average daily planetary A index moved from 7 to 7.9, and average daily middle latitude numbers went from 4.9 to 5.4.

Predicted solar flux is 92, 94 and 94 on November 29 to December 1, 88 on December 2-6, 82 on December 7-8, 85 on December 9-11, 82 and 80 on December 12-13, 78 on December 14-20, 80 on December 21, 82 on December 22-26, 85 on December 27-30, and 82 on December 31 through January 4, 2022.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 29, 5 on November 30 through December 2, 10 on December 3-4, 8 on December 5-6, 5 on December 7-11, then 8, 12 and 10 on December 12-14, 5 on December 15-16, then 8, 10 and 10 on December 17-19, 5 on December 20-23, 10 and 8 on December 24-25, and 5 on December 26 through January 7.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 26 to December 22, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. This will be his final report.

'Geomagnetic field will be: quiet on: December 5, 10, 12, quiet to unsettled on: December 9, 11, quiet to active on: November 28-30, December 2, 6, 8, unsettled to active on: November 26-27, December 3-4, 7, 15, Active to disturbed: December 1, (13-14,) 16, 19, 21-22, 'Solar wind will intensify on November (29-30), December (1,) 2-4, 14-15, and 29. 'Remarks: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. - Important notice: You have just received my latest prediction of Earth's magnetic field activity. Nothing like that existed 45 years ago, so I learned to compile predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity. Today we have relatively good forecasts from several places and I, given my age, can finally end this activity. Thank you for your attention. F. K. Janda, OK1HH.'

N4SO reports from Southern Alabama on the Gulf of Mexico, EM50tk.

'Frequency is 24915 FT8 mode (using WSJT-X v2.5.2 68dc11). Propagation is to the North East, all with approximately the same bearing of 41 to 54 degrees, and grids FN20, FM29, FM18, EM74, FM05, EM84.

'26 November, 2:51 AM Rx at Fri, 26 Nov 2021 08:51:00 GMT >From N4SO by WZ7I Loc FN20kk83 Frequency: 24.915.993 MHz (12m) FT8, -17dB Distance: 1015 miles bearing 43 degrees

'3:02 AM Rx at Fri, 26 Nov 2021 09:02:11 GMT >From N4SO by NA2R Loc FM29TN Frequency: 24.915.917 MHz (12m) FT8, -9dB Distance: 1010 miles bearing 47 degrees

'3:06 AM Rx at Fri, 26 Nov 2021 09:06:45 GMT >From N4SO by K1HTV-4 Loc FM18ap Frequency: 24.915.900 MHz (12m) FT8, -17dB Distance: 819 miles bearing 43 degrees.'

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 18 through 24, 2021 were 22, 22, 22, 22, 22, 39, and 39, with a mean of 26.9. 10.7 cm flux was 81.8, 79, 79.6, 78.9, 78.3, 79.8, and 83.4, with a mean of 80.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 10, 12, 9, 9, and 5, with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 7, 8, 7, 7, and 3, with a mean of 5.4.

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