[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Both Regions 2896 (S17W15, Hrx/alpha) and 2897 (N17W03, Hsx/alpha) were quiet and stable throughout the period.

Other activity included an approximately 30 degree filament eruption centered near N35W10 beginning at 20/1433 in SDO/AIA imagery. A backside eruption could also be seen off the NW limb in GOES/SUVI 304 imagery beginning at 20/1729 UTC. A CME off the NW was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/1924 UTC that may be a combination of the two events. Analysis is in progress.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 21-23 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 21-23 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 520 km/s to near 630 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-9 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 21 Nov under CH HSS influence. Conditions are expected to slowly recover on 22 Nov through 23 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with active intervals likely, on 21 Nov as HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Nov, with mostly quiet levels expected on 23 Nov as HSS conditions gradually wane.

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