[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2896 (S17W02, Hsx/alpha) and 2897 (N16E10, Hsx/alpha) were quiet and stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 20-22 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 20-22 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field gradually increased to a maximum of 10 nT at 20/0612 UTC while the Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT at 20/0601 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 435 km/s to near 525 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through 21 Nov under CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed is likely to persist in the 500-550 km/s range on 20-21 Nov. Conditions are expected to slowly diminish on 22 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with active periods likely through 21 Nov as HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Nov as conditions wane.

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