[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to multiple C-class flaring from Regions 2891 (N16W57, Bxo/beta) and 2894 (S27E62, Cso/beta). The largest was a C2 flare at 05/2157 UTC from Region 2894. Regions 2891 and 2893 (N17W02, Hsx/alpha) decayed slightly over the period whereas 2894 developed a small trailing spot.

Other activity included an approximate 20 degree filament eruption center near N01W53 beginning at 06/0025 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. A possibly related CME could be seen off the SW limb at 06/0324 UTC. Further analysis is being conducted to determine if an Earth-directed component exists.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flaring on 06-08 Nov, particularly from Region 2894.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,820 pfu observed at 05/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate to high levels on 06-07 Nov in response to CME activity. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain near background levels on 06-08 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under CME influence. Solar wind speed was in decline from approximately 600 km/s to near 520 km/s, with total field calming from 9 nT to 4 nT before 05/2300 UTC. At 2315 UTC, total field briefly rose to 10 nT followed by an increase in solar wind speed to 634 km/s before slowly decreasing to end of period values near 545 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to trend towards background levels as CME influence wanes over 06 Nov. 07-08 Nov may see weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels in response to persistent CME activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 06 Nov as CME effects slowly wane. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 07-08 Nov due to possible weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

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