[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to C-class flaring from Region 2887 (S25, L=278) and new Region 2894 (S27E73, Hsx/alpha). The largest flare of the period was a C2 flare at 04/1453 UTC from Region 2894. Slight decay was observed in Region 2891 (N16W45, Cao/beta) while Region 2893 (N16E11, Hsx/alpha) appeared stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flaring on 05-07 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain near background levels on 05-07 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV electrons are expected to reach moderate to high levels on 05-07 Nov in response to CME activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be influenced by CME activity over the period. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 685 km/s to near 570 km/s. Total field decreased from 16 nT to 8 nT while the Bz component rotated to a maximum of +12 nT before slowly diminishing to around +6 nT. Phi angle rotated from positive to a negative sector at 05/0341 UTC.

Forecast: CME activity is expected to wane on 05-06 Nov. Solar wind speeds in the 400-500 km/s range along with total field values near 10nT are likely to continue through 06 Nov. 07 Nov is expected to see only slight residual agitation from a quiet background.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels early in the period (04/1200-1500 UTC period) followed by quiet to active levels afterwards due to persistent CME effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Nov followed by quiet to active levels on 06 Nov as CME effects slowly wane. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 07 Nov.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation